Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

Alcaraz and Shapovalov have stepped onto the tennis court, rackets armed and with statistics primed to argue who might have the upper hand. It turns out their second serve performances danced a close tango over the past six months, with Shapovalov cha-cha-ing slightly ahead at 45.97%, beating Alcaraz’s sway of 45.32%. Talk about a second serve showdown, eh?

When it comes to return game mastery, Shapovalov took a slight lead again, snatching 42.91% of points on their opponent’s second serve, as opposed to Alcaraz’s respectable 40.47%. First serve returns, however, really throw a curveball, with Alcaraz serving up 23.54% compared to Shapovalov’s 21.61%. Statisticians might be biting their nails because these numbers are great explainers of who tilts the scales in this head-to-head drama.

Under pressure? Alcaraz seems to have his cool party trick right, escaping from 56.2% of breakpoints. Shapovalov, while not far behind, shows a still impressive stat at 55.08%, making these players a cliffhanger’s perfect match.

The past year paints Alcaraz as quite the victorious warrior, winning 82.86% of his skirmishes (W/L 58/12), while Shapovalov, although not the ultimate conqueror, held his ground firmly with a 64.52% success rate (W/L 40/22). Now, let's skate onto their favorite surfaces: Alcaraz seems to glide effortlessly on grass with an 89% win rate (W/L 24/3), despite slipping a bit on indoor hard courts at 66%. Shapovalov, however, prefers the sparkle of indoor hard courts with a win rate of 63% (W/L 81/48), while seeming to trip a little on grass at an even 50% balance (W/L 24/24).

If we're talking player level, Alcaraz has gallivanted around the Grand Slam scene, claiming victories in 90.48% of his matches (W/L 19/2). Shapovalov, meanwhile, hones his craft on the Main Tour, charming a 69.7% winning rate (W/L 23/10). Of course, dissecting their event levels is crucial in determining the fan favorite.

In their previous head-to-head rendezvous, Alcaraz waved his victory flag after a slam-dunk win at the French Open with Shapovalov not yet weaving a win (set count 3-0 in Alcaraz's favor). Though they haven’t tangoed with tiebreaks, or waltzed into deciding sets before, Alcaraz takes the cake with a 73% deciding set victory rate over the last year, alongside Shapovalov's 56% shimmy.

So, what does the crystal ball of statistics say about this upcoming encounter? With grass being Alcaraz’s stage and seeing his past performances wrapped in golden ribbons of victory, it seems the odds and ends knit Alcaraz as the titan likely to walk away with the triumph coat. But keep those eyes peeled and stats in mind because tennis is, after all, a sport of surprising twirls.